Key Points:
- Bajaj Finance Q3 profit and NII expected to grow 17–21% YoY on strong loan expansion.
- AUM up 22% to ₹4.85 lakh crore; new loans booked rose 15% to 1.39 crore.
- Stock trades near ₹908 with options pricing implying ±6.5% post-earnings volatility.
Bajaj Finance Ltd. is expected to report double-digit growth in net profit and net interest income for the December quarter later Tuesday, driven by strong loan book expansion and higher assets under management, according to market estimates.
Analysts expect the nonbank lender’s net interest income to rise 17% to 18% year over year to between ₹10,988 crore and ₹11,150 crore, compared with ₹9,382 crore in the year-ago period. Net profit is projected to increase 17% to 21% to a range of ₹4,980 crore to ₹5,150 crore, versus ₹4,247 crore in the same quarter last year.
Bajaj Finance will announce its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market hours.
“The growth outlook remains supported by sustained demand across consumer and small-business segments, which is translating into healthy disbursements and balance sheet expansion,” said an equity analyst at a domestic brokerage who tracks the company.
Street Expects Strong AUM, New Loan Growth to Lift Earnings
In its quarterly business update, Bajaj Finance said new loans booked rose 15% year over year to 1.39 crore during the December quarter. Assets under management increased 22% to ₹4.85 lakh crore, reflecting steady momentum across product categories.
The company’s total customer franchise stood at 11.15 crore as of Dec. 31, 2025, underscoring continued penetration in retail and digital channels.
Analysts said these operating metrics point to another quarter of solid core earnings growth, even as funding costs remain elevated across the financial sector.
“Loan growth in the mid-teens combined with stable margins should translate into strong earnings visibility,” said a market strategist at a Mumbai-based investment firm. “The key monitorable will be how margins behave and whether asset quality remains steady.”
Investors Watch Margins, Asset Quality in Management Commentary
Beyond headline numbers, investors will closely track management commentary on net interest margins, loan growth outlook and trends in gross and net non-performing assets.
Any indication of pressure on asset quality or higher provisioning could temper enthusiasm, analysts said, even if profit growth meets expectations.
Bajaj Finance reported net profit of ₹4,875 crore in the September quarter, reflecting sequential growth, and management had earlier guided for continued expansion in consumer and commercial lending.
“Clarity on credit costs and competitive intensity will be important for assessing the sustainability of growth into fiscal 2027,” said another analyst covering the stock.
Stock Finds Near-Term Support as Options Price Volatility
Ahead of the earnings release, Bajaj Finance shares closed 0.6% higher at ₹908. The stock is down more than eight per cent so far this year amid volatility in broader equity markets.
Technically, the stock has found near-term support around ₹885 but continues to trade below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, indicating underlying weakness. Analysts see resistance near the ₹970 to ₹980 zone.
In the derivatives market, options data indicate an implied move of about ±6.5% for the Feb. 24 expiry. The at-the-money strike near ₹910 had both call and put options priced around ₹58, suggesting traders are positioning for a sizable post-earnings move.
Market participants said such pricing reflects expectations of elevated volatility around the results, with direction likely to be dictated by the strength of management guidance.
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