Key takeaways:
- India’s Venezuelan crude imports could reach 465,000 barrels daily in October.
- The projected volume would be the highest monthly level since December 2019.
- Russia’s share of India’s crude imports fell to around 35% in September.
India Venezuela oil imports are expected to rise sharply in October, with shipments projected at roughly 465,000 barrels per day, compared with 196,000 barrels per day in September. If all scheduled cargoes arrive as planned, the monthly intake would reach its highest level since December 2019.
The increase is adding another major source of crude to India’s import mix as refiners adjust purchases between Venezuela, Russia, and other suppliers. However, actual October receipts could be lower because some cargoes may not discharge before the end of the month.
Venezuela shipments rise as India diversifies crude supply
Kpler expects India Venezuela oil imports to more than double from September’s level in October. At the projected 465,000 barrels per day, shipments would represent a significant increase from the 196,000 barrels per day recorded in September.
Vessel tracking data shows at least 2 tankers scheduled to reach India’s west coast on October 31. The timing of these arrivals could affect the final monthly import figure because cargoes that arrive late may not be discharged within October.
Actual October receipts are estimated at closer to 350,000 barrels per day, based on expected discharge schedules. The higher 465,000 barrels per day figure assumes all planned cargoes reach their destinations and are processed within the month.
India resumed Venezuelan crude purchases in February after a period of limited activity. Since then, Venezuelan supplies have become a larger part of the country’s crude sourcing mix.
Every Venezuelan cargo headed to India lists Sikka as its destination. The port serves Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery complex in Gujarat, giving the refinery access to these shipments.
Venezuelan Merey crude is a dense, high-sulfur grade that requires suitable refinery processing capabilities. Its pricing has also remained below some competing crude grades, helping determine its attractiveness to refiners when shipping costs are considered.
Russian oil share falls as Venezuelan volumes increase
The rise in Venezuelan supplies has occurred alongside a decline in Russia’s share of India’s crude imports. Kpler data shows Russian crude accounted for roughly 35% of India’s crude imports in September, compared with as much as 56% in July.
The shift reflects changes in crude pricing, freight costs, and the availability of supplies from different producing countries. Venezuelan crude can offer refiners a price discount, although its longer shipping route to India and processing requirements add to the overall cost of using the grade.
Higher tanker rates could also limit the pace of Venezuelan imports if transportation costs rise significantly. The economics of each cargo depend on the crude discount relative to freight and processing costs.
For Indian refiners, the changing supply mix provides additional options for sourcing crude. Jamnagar’s refining capabilities allow Reliance to process a broad range of crude grades, including heavier varieties.
The October figures remain estimates, and the final volume of India Venezuela oil imports will depend on cargo arrivals and discharge schedules. If the projected shipments are completed, Venezuelan crude would account for a significantly larger share of India’s crude supply than it did in September, while Russia’s share would remain below its July level.
